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Initially, the former US president gave the impression to take a firm stance regarding the Ukrainian conflict. After delivering threats of "significant ramifications" last August in case Russia's president continued hindering peace talks, he eventually introduced major sanctions on Russia's primary oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil. This decision seriously affected Putin's capability to finance his military invasion in the region.

However, through his recently unveiled detailed peace initiative for Ukraine, which was developed by US and Russian officials without Ukrainian or EU input, he has seemingly returned to his pro-Putin position.

Rewarding Military Action

Trump's plan would effectively reward the Russian leader for attacking Ukraine while placing Ukraine's democratic system in jeopardy. Although strong proclamations that "Ukraine's autonomy will be upheld", large portions of the plan actually compromise that same independence. Seen as a Russian ideal would likely be a disaster for Ukraine.

Reflecting his corporate background, Trump persists to consider the war as a simple land disagreement, like handing Putin a section of Ukrainian soil will appease the president. Yet, Putin's invasion is not merely about controlling a charred swath of industrial-devastated territory in eastern Ukraine. Rather, it is about Ukraine's political system – and the Russian leader's apparent intention to eliminate it so it stops acts as an attractive model for the Russia's population of the accountable leadership that Putin's increasing autocracy withholds them.

Border Concessions

While freezing in status the already separated Ukrainian provinces of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, Trump's initiative would require the nation to surrender the entire Donetsk province. Aside from benefiting the Russian Federation with area that its troops have been failed to occupy in exceeding a ten years of fighting, this concession would make Ukrainian defenses severely undermined.

The area is the site of the nation's much-vaunted "defensive line", the well-established defensive positions that constitute a critical impediment to Russian advances. Trump would have Ukraine leave these fortifications, giving Russian forces a open way to Kyiv in case he subsequently decide to restart the conflict.

Military Limitations

Furthermore, in a step that would make renewed fighting more feasible for the Russian military, the plan would require Ukraine to reduce the numbers of its military from their existing approximately 800,000 soldiers to a cap of six hundred thousand. Importantly, the initiative places no such limits on the invading army.

Apparently as a accommodation to Putin's campaign to characterize the nation's chosen by the people administration as radicals, Trump's plan asserts: "Any Nazi belief system and practices must be rejected and forbidden." Apparently to highlight this aspect, it insists that "Ukraine will hold elections in this period" of a peace deal. At the same time, the proposal sets no condition that the Russian leader risk his regime by allowing democratic processes in his own country.

Security Assurances

Admittedly, the proposal has the Russian Federation promise not to "attack other states" and to "enshrine in law its position of non-violence towards Europe and Ukraine". However given that Putin has violated equivalent accords in the history – for example the 1994 agreement, in which Russia pledged to honor the nation's territorial integrity in return for surrendering its former Soviet atomic arms, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Moscow promised to a ceasefire and a restoration of captured territory in the Donbas to Kyiv – why should anyone believe Russia on this occasion?

This explains Ukraine has been so determined on external security guarantees. While the initiative threatens a "immediate coordinated defense action" should the Russian Federation resume its military campaign, and includes that "Ukraine will receive dependable defense commitments", the details range from unclear to alarming. The proposal would not only block the nation accession to NATO but also prohibit alliance nations from positioning forces on Ukraine's soil, thus preventing the reassurance force, presumptively led by Britain and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been relying to deter Putin from restoring his weakened forces, rearming, and attacking again.

International Concern

A separate side agreement apparently would offer Ukraine with a Nato-style defense commitment, in which any subsequent "significant, deliberate, and sustained aggression" by Russia on the country "would be considered as an attack jeopardizing the peace and security of the Western nations." This indicates a armed reaction. However unlike a strong national defense – the nation's best defense against future hostilities – the credibility of the side agreement would rely on the willingness of alliance members, like Trump, to react through arms to Putin's attacks, an action they have {not