Is the Entertainment Fading? The Drop of the Goals from Open Play

Football match action
Wolves recorded 10 fewer goals from open play compared to this point last season.

One of the biggest stories of the EPL season so far has been the reduction of goals scored in open-play scenarios and the way clubs are finding goals more from set-pieces as an alternative.

Looking at scoring methods to matchday 11 last season, we see a drop of 39 scored in open play and an increase of 26 from set-plays and penalties, resulting in 13 fewer altogether.

Considering the broader view, the number of shots teams are taking have seen a staggering 370 fewer in open-play than at this stage last time out.

And despite the big increase in set-play finishes, there have actually been a mere two extra shots produced from them excluding spot-kicks, demonstrating how effective sides are at discovering methods to score from dead-ball situations.

Scoring Rates Tell the Tale

Over 300 goals scored in 110 matches to date works out at 2.74 scores each match, if maintained for all 38 games could be the smallest for half a decade, back in 2020-21 (2.69).

However, only 196 scores coming in open play averages out 1.78 per game and is tracking to be the smallest for since 2009-10, back in 2009-10 (1.76 average).

The 2009-10 season also marks the only Premier League campaign to experience scoring more frequently from dead-balls without spot-kicks than this campaign's frequency of 0.77 each match (0.79 average).

What Clubs Bear the Most Responsibility?

In terms of scoring from open-play, Wolverhampton Wanderers have experienced by far the biggest drop, scoring just four in 11 games, a reduction of 10 than this point the previous campaign.

Apart from Wolverhampton, the Premier League's fall in open-play scoring is largely a trend among London clubs, with five out of the London's seven clubs netting five or more goals fewer from open-play than the prior season.

To be fair, this is primarily due to them scoring numerous goals at the early stages of the previous campaign as opposed to them really struggling to convert in open play this campaign.

Meanwhile Manchester City have seen the biggest increase, with nearly all of their 23 goals so far coming in open-play.

Dead-Ball Dominance

Looking at newly promoted sides with the teams that went down they replaced. Play-off winners the Black Cats have netted three extra goals in open play than the Saints achieved in matchday 11 leading to relegation the previous campaign.

In terms of scoring from set-pieces (excluding penalties), Arsenal and Chelsea have recorded the biggest increase, with each team making up for the five fewer scores that they've scored in open-play with an equal amount from dead-ball chances.

Manchester United have scored double the number scores from set-plays as they did in the 11 games the previous campaign before their coach took charge, while Sunderland once more have been more successful at scoring than the similar-colored team they superseded.

Manchester City seem unaware of the memo about increasing scoring from set-plays, because they've recorded three less than last season, similar to Forest, though this may result from the change in style they have tried to implement.

League-Wide Trends

Six clubs – Arsenal, the Blues, Fulham, Newcastle, Spurs and the Hammers – have been this term's primary examples by netting less scores from open-play and additional from set-plays, while Man City stand as the unique club to go against the grain up to now by achieving the complete reverse.

It will be fascinating to watch if clubs persist to rely so heavily on set-pieces as the campaign progresses or if they rediscover their all-round creativity and begin converting increased totals in open play too.

Christopher Johnson
Christopher Johnson

A seasoned gambling analyst with over a decade of experience in casino game reviews and responsible gaming advocacy.