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The leader of Colombia, Gustavo Petro, is undertaking a high-stakes trip to the US capital to meet American leader Donald Trump. This marks the initial face-to-face meeting between the two leaders following months of rising tensions and sharp rhetoric.

Topics for Discussion

Venezuela, narcotics trade, energy, security, and American military actions on suspected drug vessels are expected to be high on the list of topics when they meet at the White House on Tuesday.

Background of Strained Relations

While the two men were cordial in a phone call following a January American action, Petro has since stated he feels there is a "genuine danger" of armed intervention against Colombia. Trump, in turn, has previously remarked that a military operation in Colombia "seems like a good idea".

Tuesday's summit comes after an extended period of the two leaders exchanging criticisms. Petro has repeatedly criticised repeated US strikes on suspected narco-vessels in the Caribbean and Pacific, as well as the US administration's border policies.

"He changed his attitude," the US President was quoted as stating ahead of the White House talks.

Points of Contention

On the US side, Trump has charged Petro's administration of not doing enough to halt the trafficking of narcotics toward the United States, and has pledged to expand military actions to terrestrial objectives across the area.

But, the acrimony appeared to subside after a "polite" telephone conversation involving the two leaders, which a Colombian official later described as an complete reversal "from both sides".

Mediating Role

Per insiders, a key figure – US Senator Rand Paul – was instrumental in facilitating the conversation. "I have faith in negotiation and I thought our relations were going in the wrong direction," the senator was quoted as saying. "And I'd like to see our relationship to improve."

Border Security and the Guerrilla Group

Prior to Tuesday's visit, officials from Bogotá indicated that much of the discussion would center on shared US and Colombian concerns over security in the neighboring country, with which Colombia has an extensive frontier.

A significant portion of that frontier is under the sway of the National Liberation Army. This armed faction, founded in the 1960s, dominates narco-trade, extortion, smuggling, and unlawful extraction in frontier regions and allegedly collaborates with corrupt elements within the Caracas administration.

From the US perspective, addressing the threat of the ELN will be crucial to guaranteeing safety for US firms engaged in Venezuela's oil industry. Analysts point out that the ELN has the potential to disrupt economic ambitions by targeting international businesses and staff, as it has in the past done in Colombia.

Drug War Collaboration

An equally pressing issue for the two leaders will be the fight against drug trafficking from Colombia, the world's biggest producer of the drug. Earlier this year, Petro ordered a temporary pause on information exchange with US security agencies after comments from Washington.

The US has, conversely, formally listed Colombia as a country that has "demonstrably failed" in combating drug trafficking. It has also enacted restrictions on figures in Petro's government, including the leader and members of his family.

"Combating the cocaine trade is impossible without Colombia," said a regional security expert. "Any move to sever Colombian cooperation could also weaken all enforcement efforts."

Potential Outcomes

Despite multiple issues for collaboration, the potential for a clash remains. "Trump loves you one day, dislikes you the next day," commented a former diplomat. "I suspect is that Petro will walk in with some offers to avoid Trump's anger... But one never knows."

For the Colombian leader, even a contentious meeting could be advantageous. His time in office ends in the coming months, and the results of the talks could influence the electoral chances of his preferred successor.

"To an extent, he's kind of in a win-win position," said a regional expert. "A positive outcome undermines criticism... If talks sour, he's protecting national sovereignty. He could turn that in his favor."