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The overthrow and reported capture by incursive US forces of Nicolas Maduro will send a shiver of fear and consternation across the globe. This power grab is unlawful, without justification, and destabilizing for the region and the world. It upends international norms, disregards national territorial sovereignty, and potentially creates an anarchic situation inside Venezuela itself.

It is policy crafted from chaos. But this is the reality we currently inhabit – the universe as defined by the US President.

An Extraordinary and Perilous Declaration of Unfettered US Power

The direct attack on Venezuela signifies an extraordinary, dangerous declaration of unfettered US power and arrives the same week that Trump threatened military strikes against a further disliked government opposed to the West: that of Iran. It comes after many months of escalating US pressure through military, economic, and political means on Maduro, including deadly naval strikes on vessels suspected of drug smuggling.

Trump claims to be acting to stop illicit drugs entering the US via Venezuela and to cease an purported flood of “criminal” migrants. In an echo of the US invasion of Iraq in 2003, he is also charged with desiring Venezuela’s huge oil and gas resources – doubts strengthened by frequent, unlawful US seizures of Venezuelan oil tankers.

But Trump’s primary motives seem to be personal animosity aimed at Maduro, and a wish to resurrect the historical Monroe Doctrine by creating a US sphere of influence and supremacy across the Western Hemisphere.

Regional Outrage and Global Repercussions

Regional leaders, including Colombia’s president, who has clashed with Trump in recent months, greeted the coup with fury and concern; in part, possibly, because they worry they also could become victims of Washington’s newly aggressive dominance. Cuba’s leftwing government has particular cause for concern. It relies heavily on Venezuela’s regime for low-cost fuel and backing in politics and economics.

The US secretary of state has been explicit of his wish to see a change in government in Havana. In Panama, too, anxiety levels will be running high. Trump has previously threatened military action there, over control of the Panama Canal. Indeed, the alleged apprehension of Maduro recalls the 1989 US incursion into Panama and the toppling and arrest of its then dictator.

Autocratic, undemocratic governments globally will be closely observing Trump’s subsequent moves, as will Washington’s allies in democracy. Iran denounced the overthrow. It has valid cause to be apprehensive. But Russia’s president may not be totally displeased by the defenestration of his Venezuelan ally.

A Dangerous Precedent for International Disputes

Trump’s unjustified turn to force is not entirely dissimilar from moves during the invasion of Ukraine. Both have illegally attacked a neighbouring country and attempted to oust its government. For China’s leader, whose forces were recently practising military action against the “breakaway factions” of Taiwan, Trump has just set a precedent he may one day gladly follow.

Trump’s coup is of great concern to Britain, the EU and western democracies. They ought to, and have to, unequivocally condemn it. It directly challenges the rules and principles of the global system they hold dear. The US has yet again disregarded the United Nations and traditional methods of addressing disputes between nations. And it is acting with seemingly little consideration for what happens next in Venezuela.

Uncertain Aftermath and Potential for Chaos

The Caracas government has been decapitated, but remaining high-ranking figures of the regime appear still to be in place. They are urging resistance and, possibly, reprisals against the US. There are unverified accounts of civilian casualties. If a power vacuum develops, civil stability could collapse, sparking civil war or a potential armed takeover. And it is uncertain whether the most recent American armed intervention has ended, or may escalate further.

The notion that exiled opposition leaders will swiftly return and that complete democratic rule will now be restored is unrealistic. The coming days will be decisive. And it’s all down to Trump.

The Illusion of a Peacemaker

Trump’s imprudent move should at last bury his always misleading self-portrayal as a “global peacemaker”. It’s high time that European leaders publicly recognise him for who he is – a global warmaker, a universal menace.

Each time he stumbles clumsily into conflict zones, setting deadlines, issuing ultimatums, picking favourites and profiting from suffering, the quest for just and lasting peace is set back.

No surprise peace is elusive. And bizarrely, even while presenting himself as a disinterested peacemaker and non-interventionist, Trump concurrently conducts warfare on the world. The US conducted unprecedented levels of air strikes in the Middle East and Africa the previous year, surveys show.

A Heritage Built on Violence

Since returning to office a year ago, peace-loving Trump has launched strikes in Yemen, carelessly killing numerous civilians after relaxing combat protocols; attacked targets in Nigeria, to detrimental outcomes; bombed Somalia, Iraq and Syria; and bombed Iran, where he falsely inflated the effectiveness of American attacks on atomic energy sites. He even refuses to rule out attacking Greenland, a sovereign territory of a NATO partner.

What is occurring inside Trump’s head? A benign interpretation is that in issues of conflict and tranquility, he has no idea what his actions entail – no strategy, no clue – and invents strategy as he goes, depending on how he feels.

The sinister interpretation says he knows exactly what he is doing, that more and worse is to come. Like previous leaders in their final term who exhausted options domestically, Trump finds the world stage provides more opportunities for the exercise of power and self-importance. He is forging a historical record in blood.

Trump’s reckless, perilously unstable behaviour is getting noticeably more severe. His Venezuela “triumph” may embolden him to try further and bigger, unhinged outrages. He struts and preens, shouts for chaos! and lets slip the dogs of war.